Industry Observation｜Peak Season of Refrigerant Gas is Approaching

As the temperature rises in various places, the demand of the refrigeration market is about to increase, and the refrigerant industry has once again attracted people's attention.

A senior industry source in Shandong told the Financial Associated Press that the refrigerant industry is about to enter the peak season, downstream demand has begun to grow gradually, and refrigerant products are expected to increase in both volume and price. At the same time, with the clearing of small and medium production capacity, leading refrigerant companies are expected to fully benefit from this round of industrial dividends.

Zhuochuang Information analyst Wang Xinyue said in an interview with reporters that the demand for the refrigerant industry around the Spring Festival was short-lived. Since February, product prices have fallen to a certain extent, and the industry's overall profitability is limited, but leading companies still have certain advantages due to their scale of profit margins. In March, downstream companies began to replenish their supplies one after another, and the overall market of the refrigerant market was expected to rebound when industry orders began.

The reporter interviewed several companies related to the refrigerant industry and learned that domestic orders for refrigerants have rebounded slightly at present, and the restoration of the export tax rebate policy has increased the overseas orders significantly, and most companies have maintained a high operating rate.

Domestic and foreign demand gradually released

Refrigerants (fluorine refrigerants) are one of the most important products in the fluorine chemical industry. The downstream demand is dominated by air conditioners (including automobiles), industrial and commercial refrigeration, accounting for more than 80%. Since the beginning of this year, the short-term weakness of domestic and foreign trade demand has caused a short-term price drop in the refrigerant market, which has been rising all the way in the previous period.

According to the data of Zhuochuang Consulting, the latest market price of the second-generation refrigerant R22 is 16,900 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton from the price in early February; the latest market prices of the third-generation refrigerants R32 and R134a are 15,000 yuan/ton and 2.4 yuan respectively. 10,000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton and 1,200 yuan / ton respectively from the prices in early February.

Wang Xinyue said that due to insufficient downstream demand in winter, dealers will also stock up before the Spring Festival. Therefore, the refrigerant industry will usually experience a relatively weak period before and after the Spring Festival. In addition, this year is the last of the three-generation refrigerant quota designation baseline. Some production enterprises still increased production in order to compete for future production quotas, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the refrigerant market in February, and the overall market situation declined.

As temperatures warmed, downstream demand for refrigerants began to recover. Relevant data shows that in January this year, my country's air-conditioning industry sold about 13.31 million units, down about 5% year-on-year. However, since March, the domestic air-conditioning industry has begun to increase production, and the output has increased by 3.1% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the sales volume increased by 5%, and the export sales volume increased by 14% compared with the same period last year.

At the same time, the overseas demand of the refrigerant industry has also grown significantly with the support of relevant policies. It is reported that in January last year, the country's adjustment to export tariffs resulted in the failure of normal tax rebates for some types of refrigerants. Recently, the State Administration of Taxation has re-publicized the export tax rebates for refrigerant products, and the tax rebates for all types of refrigerants have returned to normal.

Wang Xinyue said that the recovery of tax rebates has led to a significant increase in export orders of refrigerant companies, and domestic trade orders have also rebounded slightly.

A senior executive of a listed company in the domestic refrigerant industry told reporters that the current three-generation refrigerant quota competition has not been completely ended, and the operating rates of refrigerant companies are generally high. The price drop in February has squeezed the company's profits to a certain extent, but with the arrival of the peak season, the profitability of the company will also be restored.