Refrigerant ushered in an inflection point, and the faucet that withstands the pressure in the early stage will gain a lot!

1) The refrigerant cycle ushered in an inflection point

On April 16, 2021, China announced that it had decided to accept the "Montreal Protocol" Kigali Amendment to strengthen the control of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases such as hydrofluorocarbons. According to the requirements of the Kigali Amendment, the first group of developing countries, including China, should freeze the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in 2024, and implement the first reduction in 2029. The 10% plan will be reduced by 80% until 2045, and the elimination cycle will last more than 20 years.

2) The third-generation refrigerant will welcome a high degree of certainty

According to the requirements of the "Kigali Amendment", the HFCs reduction benchmark is the average value of HFCs refrigerant usage from 2020 to 2022. Subsequent quota approvals will be based on comprehensive considerations such as the market share of enterprises during this period. During this period, the competition for quotas is expected to make the industry oversupply and product prices drop sharply. At present, the HFCs refrigerant quota base period has passed halfway, capacity expansion has basically ended, leading companies have basically completed their layout, and the future quota structure is gradually becoming clear.

Although HFCs refrigerants are controlled varieties, it usually takes 8-10 years from the beginning of using a refrigerant to the elimination of refrigeration equipment. HFCs refrigerants are the best choice under the current development, environmental protection and safety balance. There is still ample room for demand in the long elimination cycle. Air-conditioning refrigerants in my country account for about 78% of the total amount of refrigerants. HFC-32, as the current mainstream replacement of HCFC-22, has a significant increase in the proportion of fixed-frequency air-conditioning in the industrial and commercial refrigeration and room air-conditioning industries. According to industry online data, the penetration rate of HFC-32 air conditioners has increased significantly from 39.2% in 2019 to 54.2% in 2020. Under the mandatory requirements of policies, this proportion will be further expanded. With the increasingly clear supply pattern, the current state of deviation between the price of HFC-32 products and terminal demand may be reversed. The leading companies that withstood the pressure in the early stage and firmly implemented the strategic layout have seen the light, and are expected to reap rich returns in the future.

3) Confirmation at the bottom of the refrigerant industry, and the bottom layout should not miss the cycle

Second-generation refrigerants: Since the R22 price differential dropped to 4,400 yuan/ton in January 2021, the bottom has stabilized. The current price of R22 refrigerant is about 16,000 yuan/ton, which is an increase of about 14.3% from the beginning of 2021 and about 10.34% from the same period in 2020. , The price has picked up. As of June 11, the spread was 4,520 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 150 yuan/ton from June 4, and the bottom fluctuated slightly. According to the announcement of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of my country, the production quota for the second-generation refrigerant R22 in 2021 is 224,800 tons, which is the same as in 2020 and a decrease of 15.7% compared to 2019. With the advent of summer, the demand for R22 refrigerant in the air-conditioning aftermarket is expected to rise rapidly, which will strongly support the upward spread of R22.

Third-generation refrigerants: The prices of third-generation refrigerants have fallen sharply due to the expected quota competition for HFCs and the new crown epidemic. The current R32, R125, and R134a refrigerant price differentials are all at historically low levels, and the downside space has been very limited. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the current prices of R32, R125, and R134a refrigerants are 12,000, 29,000, and 22,000 yuan/ton, respectively, +4.34%, +111.68%, and +33.33% compared with the same period in 2020; as of June 11, the price difference The prices were -3,121, 6,573, and 1,753 yuan/ton, which were unchanged from June 4. The refrigerant has bottomed out.

Frioflor refrigerant believes that although my country's HFCs quota formulation and related policies have not yet been officially introduced, in the management and control of various non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases that will be implemented to achieve the carbon neutral strategy, HFCs policy expectations are the clearest and the path is the clearest. As the third-generation refrigerant quota management measures are about to be implemented, new and old energy-efficient cars and air conditioners are accelerating the upgrade and iteration, the industry’s darkest moment has passed, and the cycle reversal may be approaching. It is recommended to pay attention to refrigeration with little downward space but broad upward space. Layout opportunities at the bottom of the agent.