Under Quota Management, The Price of R32 Continues To Rise.

In 2026, R32 continued to be subject to production quota management, leading to a steady increase in market prices. According to Fluorine Online, as of January 5, 2026, R32 was quoted at 61,000-62,000 yuan/ton, with the latest long-term contract offer price at 61,200 yuan/ton. FRIOFLOR Information data predicts that in the first quarter of 2026, the long-term contract price of R32 will reach 61,200 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 1.66% increase.

Going back further, according to an industry insider, in early 2024, the year the production quota system was implemented, the price of R32 was 17,000 yuan/ton. By early 2025, the price had already reached 40,000 yuan/ton. In just two years, the R32 refrigerant industry transformed from a loss-making sector to a high-profit one.

The reason supporting the continued rise in R32 prices is nothing more than the imbalance between supply and demand.

From the supply side, R32 is under quota management, and supply shortages have persisted. According to FRIOFLOR Information's calculations, from January to October 2025, R32 production was approximately 246,400 tons, accounting for 80.59% of the annual quota, with an annualized utilization rate of 96.71%. Actual demand was approximately 293,000 tons, resulting in a supply-demand gap of 17,200 tons. An executive from a fluorochemical company pointed out that whether this gap is 5%, 7%, or 10%, it doesn't really matter; as long as a supply-demand gap exists, downstream air conditioning manufacturers are on edge and must ensure sufficient supply.

From the demand side, in 2025, R32 had become the leading refrigerant used in the residential air conditioning industry. According to data from Industry Online, R32 accounts for over 95% of the residential air conditioning market. From 2021 to 2024, the proportion of R32 as a refrigerant in the Chinese residential air conditioning market was 60.6%, 59.6%, 65.9%, and 70.9%, respectively, a staggering increase. Meanwhile, the production of household air conditioners has remained relatively high in recent years. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to October 2025, China's cumulative production of household air conditioners reached 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. In January 2026, the planned production of household air conditioners is 18.51 million units, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year. These factors have all supported the price of HFC refrigerants.