Weak demand appears, and refrigerants are in a downturn

In the first half of 2021, mainly supported by raw materials, coupled with the traditional relatively high season from March to May, refrigerant prices have risen steadily. Beginning in early June, the cost is difficult to reverse the weak demand, and the disadvantages appear, and various types of refrigerants enter the downward channel.We analyzes the policy aspect, cost aspect, supply aspect and demand facing the market outlook:

　　1.refrigerant R22

On the raw material side, due to the lack of inventory pressure from chloroform manufacturers, the current price is mainly maintained at a high level. The current price refers to 4350-4370 yuan/ton; anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is in short supply and transportation is restricted. Sinochem 9300/9400 yuan/ton is less than 6 The monthly pricing was flat, and Juhua fell slightly by 100 yuan/ton.

In terms of policy, affected by the Montreal Protocol, the refrigerant R22 is planned to be reduced by 35% in 2025, and to be completely eliminated in 2030 except for maintenance and special purposes (2.5%). All fields are actively using alternatives and alternative processes for transformation; Starting from 2021.7.1, the new energy efficiency of air conditioners will prohibit the sale of substandard products.

　　 On the supply side, refrigerant R22 manufacturers are operating at a relatively high rate. Among them, 6:1 products are used as raw materials to produce polymers. Currently, Juhua and Meilan use quotas at normal speeds, and Dongyue is relatively fast;

　　 On the demand side, due to policy influences, the purchase of refrigerant R22 for first- and second-line air conditioners is less than 5%; the foaming field is switched to carbon dioxide and alcohol technology; the after-sales market is affected by the rainy weather and the repeated effects of temperature. The overall demand is not as good as expected.

In summary, the refrigerant R22 market is trending downward, supported by the price of chloroform, and the decline may be limited. The current mainstream transactions on the market refer to 15500-16000 yuan/ton to be delivered. It is heard that there are low-priced shipments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with a price difference of 300 -Around 500 yuan/ton.

　2. refrigerant R32

On the raw material side, the market for dichloromethane has declined slightly due to limited transportation and reduced downstream demand. The current increase is 3720-3890 yuan/ton; anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is stable and bearish, with a limited decline. It is expected that Meilan and Dongyue will be priced tomorrow. .

In terms of policy, the "Kigali Amendment" stipulates that 2020-2022 will be used as the base year for HFCs. The production and consumption of HFCs will be frozen in 2024, and will be reduced from 2029, 10% that year, and 80% by 2045. %.

　　 On the supply side, the refrigerant R32 manufacturer has storage risks, Feiyuan, Sanmeijun staged overhauls, Luxi, Linhai Limin, and Huaan New Materials are currently in a long-term shutdown state, and the Meilan plant is reduced to 50% of the load. The relative daily output of Dongyue and Juhua is relatively high, 140 tons + and 280 tons + respectively, mainly because Gree's supply of Midea accounts for about 40%.

On the demand side, the refrigerant R32 currently accounts for about 70% of the demand for air-conditioning plants. However, due to the doubling of copper prices and the shortage of chips, the air-conditioning plants are less motivated to start operations. Fujitsu and Panasonic have been shut down for about one month. The domestic production tasks of Aux have also been loosened. It is expected that Entering the off-season in advance, the refrigerant R32 is mainly purchased on demand, and it is difficult to complete the production plan. Therefore, it is inevitable that the manufacturer will expand the warehouse according to the plan.

　　 To sum up, the refrigerant R32 is in a dilemma in the short-term. Due to competition for production on the market, manufacturers are selling at lower prices to ease inventory, and R32 has been in a profit-upside down stage for a long time. Given the continued high level of methylene chloride, the possibility of a substantial price cut in the short term is unlikely, the expansion of the library will be negative, and the large manufacturers may have a small price drop.

　　3. refrigerant R125

On the raw material side, perchloroethylene has entered a rapid decline since June, falling from 10,800 yuan/ton to 6,240 yuan/ton, a drop of 42.22%; the current supply of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is tight, but the terminal demand is not good, and the price is stable. The decline is expected to be about 100 yuan/ton.

　　Policy, on February 25, 2021, ITC voted to make a positive preliminary ruling on anti-dumping and anti-subsidy industrial damage on R-125 pentafluoroethane imported from China. On June 14, the U.S. Department of Commerce made an affirmative preliminary ruling on countervailing, and initially ruled that the subsidy rate of Zhejiang Quzhou Juxin Fluorochemical Co., Ltd. was 3.23%, the subsidy rate of Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Co., Ltd. was 2.31%, and the subsidy rate of Arkema Daikin Advanced Fluorochemicals was 2.31%. (Changsu)Co. , Ltd. , Daikin Fluorochemicals (China) Co. , Ltd. , HongkongRichmax Ltd. And Weitron International Refrigeration Equipment(Kunshan) Co. , Ltd. The subsidy rate is 291.26%, and the subsidy rate of other Chinese manufacturers/exporters is 3.12%.

On the supply side, the current Juhua R125 is operating at full load, with a daily output of 50 tons+ in Dongyue; a daily output of 40 tons+ in Ruyuan Dongyangguang; a daily output of 10 tons+ in Yonghe; a daily output of 30 tons+ in Feiyuan; Sanmei Fujian factory shutdown for maintenance, Wuyi self-use mixed With the main.

On the demand side, in the first half of the year, affected by the policy, both domestic and foreign companies seized the window for R125 trading. Therefore, the good demand was mainly supported by exports. In June, only the two major factories in East China delivered the final R125 export orders, which was delayed by the US port shipping schedule. As a result, the insurance period for delivery by major manufacturers will only last until the end of June. Therefore, in July, the export output flooded into the domestic trade market, when the blending plant chooses the low price to get the goods, the game in the field will escalate.

　　 To sum up, the refrigerant R125 has entered the downward channel. It is expected that the price will be lowered at a relatively rapid rate. At present, it is heard that 27000-28000 yuan/ton delivery orders have appeared in the market.

　　 4. refrigerant R134a

Raw material end: Trichloroethylene is sold at a high price due to tight supply. However, in the case of negative terminal demand, the price may be stable and bearish. Currently, it is still mainly delivered at 9800-10000 yuan/ton; anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is accepted Major manufacturers lower prices, but the supply is tight, and the decline is expected to be limited.

　　Policy: the same as refrigerant R32.

　　Supply and demand side: Meilan 30,000 tons/year, Ruyuan Dongyangguang 10,000 tons/year, Yonghe 30,000 tons/year new devices entered the market, but the auto market demand did not increase, and the market showed an oversupply trend.

　　 In summary, the price of refrigerant R134a may drop slightly. Distributors and traders did not deliver smoothly. However, supported by the price of trichloroethylene, the price decline of refrigerant R134a was limited.