Air Conditioner Refrigerant Prices Skyrocket in 2026 as Quotas Tighten Supply

In 2026, will air conditioning refrigerants become extremely in shortage to buy?

As of mid-May 2026, the mainstream refrigerant quotations in the East China market are staggering: R32, the most common refrigerant for household air conditioners, has surged to around 65,000 RMB per ton, with no sign of slowing down.

In fact, from R134a (the main refrigerant for automotive air conditioners) to R410a (a blended refrigerant for inverter air conditioners), prices across all types are hitting new highs. R134a has reached 61,000 RMB per ton, while R125 is nearing the 60,000 RMB mark—for ordinary consumers, this means the cost of replacing car air conditioning refrigerant could quietly double.

Why are refrigerants going so crazy?

You might first think of rising raw material costs. That's correct—upstream, the price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride has risen to 14,500–15,000 RMB per ton, indeed pushing up costs. But in the eyes of industry insiders, the root cause of this price surge is just one word: quotas.

To fulfill the Kigali Amendment, 2026 marks the final year of the HFCs (third-generation refrigerants) quota baseline period. Domestic total production is firmly capped by official documents, leaving supply almost no flexibility. In other words, no matter how hard downstream air conditioner manufacturers, cold chain logistics, and car makers push production, the amount that upstream refrigerant producers can sell this year is already locked in.

At the same time, quotas for second-generation refrigerant R22 are shrinking rapidly. In 2026, the production quota for R22 has been cut by nearly 3,000 tons compared to last year, with domestic-use quotas reduced by about 2,900 tons. The tightening of supply is intensifying.

How long will prices keep rising?

That’s the question everyone cares about most.

Based on current industry logic, there is no sign of supply loosening. Throughout 2026, HFCs quota policies will only become stricter, not more lenient. Meanwhile, the phase-out of R22 is accelerating, while demand for maintenance of existing equipment (old air conditioners, central air conditioners that rely on R22) remains steady or even increases. The supply-demand gap is widening daily.

Many institutions expect that before the traditional peak season in the third quarter of 2026, refrigerant prices are unlikely to see any meaningful correction. R32 could still challenge the 70,000 RMB per ton mark.