Maintenance Wave And Quota Freeze Lead to "Refrigerant Shortage"

On April 23, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "National Plan for China to Implement the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (2025-2030)", which was like a heavy bomb, causing a strong shock in the refrigerant industry. According to the "Announcement of the Production and Use Quotas of Ozone Depleting Substances in 2025", the total production quota of HCFCs in China in 2025 will be strictly controlled at 163,600 tons, and the total production quota and use quota for internal use will be 86,000 tons, with production and use reduced by 67.5% and 73.2% of the baseline value respectively.

In terms of subdivided products, the production quota/internal production quota of R22 will be reduced by 18%/28% respectively compared with 2024; the production quota/internal production quota of R141b will be reduced by 57%/68%, and the production quota/internal production quota of R142b will be reduced by 64%/79%. This series of stringent quota reduction policies has accelerated the contraction of the production capacity of second-generation refrigerants. Many manufacturing companies have had to re-plan their production layout. Some companies have chosen to gradually shut down old production capacity and shift resources to products and businesses that meet policy requirements. Some companies have increased their R&D investment and actively explored new refrigerant production technologies to adapt to the challenges brought about by policy changes.

In addition to policy factors, the company's own maintenance plans and capacity release rhythm also have an important impact on market supply. In the first half of the year, some R32 devices entered the maintenance period, resulting in a phased reduction in market supply. For example, a large R32 manufacturer carried out equipment maintenance and upgrades from April to May, during which the production capacity dropped by about 30%, which directly aggravated the tight supply and demand situation in the market and pushed R32 prices up further. At the same time, for the third-generation refrigerants, companies remain cautious about capacity release in the context of quota freezes. They pay close attention to changes in market demand, fluctuations in raw material prices, and dynamics of competitors, and arrange production plans reasonably to avoid vicious price competition caused by blind expansion of production capacity, and ensure their dominant position in market competition.