Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-08-19 Origin: Site
2. In 2022, the third generation of refrigerants will "peak"
In 2016, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol was unanimously passed, putting a tight spell on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), or fluorinated refrigerants. The amendments are expected to reduce global HFCs by 88%, thereby preventing a global warming of 0.5°C by the end of the century. Can you reduce global warming by 0.5°C by sacrificing a small refrigerant industry? This is such a great deal! As a result, the refrigerant industry was determined by the big bosses at the negotiating table.
According to the agreement, the second and third generation refrigerants will be phased out. But the big guys didn't say who will fill the position after the elimination. Anyway, we will be eliminated first! Of course, the pace has to be taken step by step. Of course, developed countries must set an example, and developing countries can delay, but they must follow closely. The following figure shows the phase-out cycle of the third-generation refrigerants.
At present, China's second-generation refrigerants are still in use, but they will be reduced by 67.5% by 2025, and there will be fewer and fewer in the future, and third-generation refrigerants will become the mainstream. However, the third-generation refrigerant will soon usher in a "peak". According to regulations, the third-generation refrigerant will be based on the sales volume of each manufacturer in 2020-2022, and will freeze and gradually reduce production from 2024. 2022 is the last year of the benchmark cycle. It is still useful to expand production now. After this village, there is no such store. When the bell rings on New Year's Day in 2023, everything has been settled. Just like when you take the college entrance examination, you must find a way to fill in every blank in the last 15 minutes, and even if you don’t know it at all, you have to write a “solve”, right?
As a result, various manufacturers have expanded their production madly under the guidance of this idea. According to the research report of Zhuochuang Information and Guosen Securities, as of the end of 2021, the total production capacity of the mainstream products of the three generations of refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a will reach 1.13 million tons, which is higher than that of 2017. Annual growth of 60%. At the same time, China has about 600,000 tons of second-generation refrigerant capacity (but the quota is only about 290,000 tons). According to data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, China's actual production of refrigerants in 2020 is 811,000 tons. After conversion, the effective capacity utilization rate of refrigerants is still less than 50%. The oversupply situation is obvious, and the price of refrigerants has entered a long-term downward cycle.
In 2023, manufacturers will organize the production of third-generation refrigerants according to market conditions, and supply and demand will return to normal levels. From 2024 onwards, the quota of the third-generation refrigerants will be locked, but we must not forget that the third-generation refrigerants in developed countries will be reduced by 40% in 2024, which is expected to create a large gap, and the global refrigerants will enter a state of tight supply and demand balance .
Historically, the second-generation refrigerants also experienced similar quota restrictions around 2013, but the price increase was not obvious. At the time, underground factory production was rampant, and quota requirements were a waste of paper. At the same time, there is little difference in cost between the third-generation refrigerant and the second-generation refrigerant, and the gap of the second-generation refrigerant is quickly filled by the third-generation refrigerant. Today, China's third-generation refrigerant production capacity far exceeds that of other countries, and the government's supervision of safety and environmental protection is no longer the same. In addition, the fourth-generation refrigerant is expensive and cannot fill the gap left by the third-generation refrigerant in time. In the next few years, the third-generation refrigerant is very flexible and is expected to usher in a big market.
3. No matter what, the demand is always there
In terms of downstream demand, household air conditioners dominate the downstream applications of refrigerants, followed by refrigerators (cabinets) and vehicle air conditioners. Home air conditioners mainly use R22, R32 and R410a, refrigerators and automobiles mainly use R134a, and a small number of high-end models have begun to use the fourth-generation R1234yf.
In the first half of 2022, due to the epidemic, real estate and other factors, household air conditioners, refrigerator freezers and car air conditioners are all miserable. In the first half of the year, the national output of household air conditioners was 122.489 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; the output of household refrigerators was 41.642 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%; the output of freezers was 12.183 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%. At the same time, affected by factors such as geopolitics and shipping prices, the export data of air conditioners and refrigerators also declined to a certain extent. Although the demand data in the first half of the year is not bright and the peak season is not prosperous, due to the rigid demand for home appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators, the long-term demand has generally increased steadily. In addition, automotive air conditioners also constitute another strong demand growth point.
Imagine what it would be like if you were isolated at home in the summer without air conditioning and refrigerator?
