Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-05-10 Origin: Site
The price of refrigerants in Europe has increased by more than 6-13 times. Starting in 2017, European countries and regions began to implement quota policies to restrict the use of high-GWP refrigerants, resulting in a reduction in supply. In addition, 2017 was also the year when the Paris Agreement came into effect. Countries have paid more attention to climate change issues and have become more cautious about the use of high-GWP refrigerants, further driving up price increases. Finally, the prices of R134a, R404A, R407C and R410A increased significantly starting in mid-2017 until reaching a peak in 2018, which was 6 to 13 times higher than in 2014.
Domestic third-generation refrigerants may be in short supply in the medium to long term.
1) According to the Montreal Protocol signed in 1987, my country's production and consumption of second-generation refrigerants as non-raw materials has been frozen in 2013. The quota will be reduced by 35% in 2020, and the quota will be reduced by 67.5% in 2025. Second-generation refrigerants Refrigerant quota reductions have accelerated in recent years.
2) In terms of third-generation refrigerants, due to the impact of the epidemic during the 2020-2022 quota period, the demand for refrigerants has decreased compared with previous years, so the supply will be tight after demand returns to normal.
3) In 2024, the country will launch the “old-for-new” policy, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of existing second-generation refrigerants with third-generation refrigerants.
4) Due to cost and patent issues, the possibility of domestic batch use of fourth-generation refrigerants in the short and medium term is low.
5) The production expansion of Indian refrigerant companies will have a small impact on the total global supply, and purchases from China may increase during the quota period.
The quotas announced by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment show that the company’s R32/125/R134a are 26,600/17,000/04,300 tons respectively. If the prices of the above products increase by 50%/100%/200%/300% respectively, the company's net profit from the domestic sales of refrigerants is expected to increase by 140%/280%/560%/839%. If the price increase of export products is also taken into account, the elasticity of the company's profits will further increase. In addition, the company stated in its annual report that it plans to further increase the quota through cross-variety conversion, same-variety transfer, cooperative transactions and purchases. Upon completion, it is expected to have a third-generation refrigerant quota of about 55,000 tons. By then, the company's profit elasticity will be further increased.
