R32 soared by 2000+ yuan per ton! Overcapacity, how long can price keeps increase?

Recently, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, fluorine refrigerants have risen due to cost pressures, and market prices have collectively increased. As of October 25, the prices of major fluorine-containing refrigerants were maintained at a high level. Among them, the mainstream market price of R22 was 26,000 yuan/ton, the reference price of R134a was 51,000 yuan/ton, the reference price of R125 was 55,000 yuan/ton, and the reference price of R410A was 37,000 yuan/ton. The refrigerant R32 market continued to rise, and the price rose again. As of October 25, the mainstream market reference price was 22,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000+ yuan/ton or 11% from the average price last week.

In this round of HFCs refrigerant price increase cycle, R32 has the lowest price and the smallest increase compared to R125 and R134a. The main reasons for this price increase are as follows: First, the cost of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride is tight, and the recent increase has been large, supported by high costs; the most important factor is the sudden increase in methylene chloride, which has worsened the supply of raw materials and the price has skyrocketed. To around 8,500 yuan/ton, it rose by 31.1% on a weekly basis. Although there has been a recent correction, it still puts huge cost pressure on R32 production. 2. In terms of supply and demand, terminal demand is not significantly positive. Major manufacturers mainly deliver pre-orders. The current supply is in short supply, and individual manufacturers have closed the market without reporting; but after all, R32 has obvious overcapacity, and high-priced shipments are more difficult. Purchasing is based on rigid demand. .

At present, China's refrigerant market is in a period of accelerated replacement of third-generation refrigerant products to second-generation refrigerant products. On September 15, the "Kigali Amendment" officially took effect for China (not applicable to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for the time being). According to the amendment, the production and consumption of HFCs in China will be frozen in 2024 on the basis of the average for 2020-2022, and will start to be reduced in 2029.

R32, as one of the largest varieties of HFCs in China, has obvious overcapacity and fierce competition in the industry. The third-generation refrigerants are about to enter the era of quota management. In order to compete for quotas, major manufacturers have expanded their production capacity and increased product sales. The impact of the epidemic is superimposed, and the profitability of products and the operating rate of enterprises have fallen sharply. This round of R32 price increase is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices. It is expected that the market will be mainly price-oriented in the short term, and adjustments will be made under the support of strong costs.