Refrigerant Gas for 2026: Limited Supply Coupled with Increasing Demand

The core constraint on the refrigerant market in 2026 remains "quotas." This year, the quota adjustment for single-product HFCs (third-generation refrigerants) has increased from 10% last year to 30%, allowing factories to flexibly allocate production quotas for popular products based on market demand, making the industry's "production on demand" characteristic even more pronounced. Simultaneously, the industry is highly concentrated, with 90% of the quotas held by a few leading companies. These companies maintain market stability by controlling supply and adjusting production schedules, avoiding price fluctuations caused by blind expansion.

More importantly, current refrigerant inventory levels are at near two-year lows, with some mainstream products having inventory days of less than 7 days, far below historical averages. This low inventory combined with the rigid constraint of total quotas makes it difficult for the supply side to rapidly increase, providing significant support for subsequent price increases.

The positive signals on the demand side are very clear, becoming the core driving force for market growth:

Sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow rapidly, and the refrigerant charge of new energy vehicles is nearly twice that of traditional fuel vehicles, directly boosting the demand for automotive refrigerants such as R134a;

Positive expectations for air conditioner production schedules in 2026, stable domestic demand for repair and replacement of existing air conditioners, coupled with overseas expansion of air conditioner production capacity, are driving growth in demand for air conditioner refrigerants such as R32;

The popularization of liquid cooling technology in data centers and the development of cold chain logistics are becoming new growth points for refrigerant demand, further expanding market space.

The market performance of different refrigerant varieties showed significant divergence, with popular varieties showing particularly strong price increases:

R125: Companies actively reduced surplus quotas and controlled supply, with prices rising to approximately 51,000 yuan/ton, driving up inquiries and prices for downstream varieties such as R404 and R507;

R410a: Driven by the R125 price increase, the agreed price with long-term cooperative customers in the first quarter increased further, reaching 55,100 yuan/ton;

R134a: Bulk supply transactions reached approximately 56,000 yuan/ton, with long-term cooperative prices with some automakers exceeding 62,000 yuan/ton. These high prices anchor market expectations, and a "high start and continued rise" is expected in 2026;

R32: The latest bulk price is between 61,200 and 62,000 yuan/ton, with the rate of increase temporarily slowing, but it is expected to become a new price surge point as seasonal procurement in the air conditioning industry begins;

R22 (2G refrigerant): Prices remain at 17,000 yuan/ton. The volume was around 1 ton, with more active trading in small-packaged products. Companies controlled the volume of bulk product orders, and export prices eased slightly.