Refrigerant R134a: One foot in heaven, one foot in hell

The price trend of refrigerant R134a:

All directions are negative, and the refrigerant R134a market has taken a sharp turn. As of November 15th, manufacturers of refrigerant R134a quoted 47,000-51,000 yuan/ton for reference, and mainstream transactions refer to 45,000-46,000 yuan/ton for delivery. Traders’ dumping prices are lower, or fall below 40,000 yuan/ton.

main reason analysis:

     1. Raw material end

Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid:

Downstream refrigerant prices have fallen significantly, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is expected to be bearish. On the supply side, although the installations in the southern region have been steadily increasing, the inventory level in the region is still low and the market supply is still relatively tight; on the demand side, the downstream refrigerant market has a weak transaction atmosphere, and the manufacturers have lowered their offers, and the installation load has declined, which is a negative performance. Obviously, as of press time, mainstream market transactions have remained at RMB 13,000-14,500/ton. Longzhong Information forecasts: On the supply side, the market outlook of manufacturers' installations is significantly improved. It is reported that Luoyang Potassium Fluoride and Huanghe Fine Fluorine Chemicals also have the willingness to drive. Except for Shangrao area, the manufacturers have the willingness to increase the installation load; on the demand side, the later refrigerant inventory The level may push up expectations, and the refrigerant market performance is bearish. On the whole, short-term orders for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid are the main products. In the long-term, the start of the operation is gradually increasing, and there is no shortage of vacancies.

Trichloroethylene:

The upstream and downstream game has intensified, and the price of trichloroethylene has plummeted. On the supply side, the trichloroethylene manufacturers in the field mainly started operations normally, and there was no reduction in maintenance plan; on the demand side, the refrigerant R134a manufacturers were poorly stocked, their inventory was superimposed, the purchasing intention was weak, and the mentality of lowering prices was rising. As of November 15th, it was heard that there was a price of 16,000 yuan/ton for the factory, which was a decline of 7,000 yuan/ton from the October price, but the purchase promotion effect was not good. Longzhong Information predicts: Trichloroethylene is mainly based on the delivery of contract orders, and the price decline of new orders is a foregone conclusion, and the decline may be larger.

2. Profit side:

According to the price of refrigerant R134a 43,000 yuan/ton, trichloroethylene price 23,000 yuan/ton, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid price 13,750 yuan/ton, the current theoretical profit level of refrigerant R134a is about 1197 yuan/ton, and the operating costs of different manufacturers are different. 

If the terminal wants to keep lowering prices, manufacturers may face cost line or loss pressure. Therefore, the current upstream and downstream game is fierce, and the refrigerant R134a is willing to be more expensive.

3. supply side:

At present, although a few areas are still affected by the limited power supply, the production of each manufacturer is relatively stable, and the inventory is superimposed when the shipment is not smooth.

4. Demand side:

Foreign trade:

Background: Since November 1, 2021, the import and export license management system will be implemented for the substances listed in the "List". All enterprises engaged in the import and export business of substances listed in the "List" must apply in accordance with the provisions of the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Ozone Depleting Substances". The entrusted license-issuing agency applies for import and export licenses and handles customs clearance procedures with the import and export licenses.

At present, some manufacturers are still applying for refrigerant R134a licenses, and the "chip shortage" may continue until mid-2022 to really start to alleviate. The output of foreign car companies has declined, and the demand for refrigerant R134a is negative.

Domestic trade:

As 2020 will be more severely affected by the epidemic, we will compare with the same period in 2019.

From January to September 2021, automobile production was 19.033 million units, a decrease of 1.768 million units compared to the same period in 2019. The current global "chip shortage" continues, or it may exacerbate the gap between the two.

Comprehensive supply and demand, raw materials, and profit: The refrigerant R134a manufacturers currently use high-priced raw materials. Due to the cost, the manufacturers have a strong willingness to stand up for the price. However, the negative terminal demand dragged down the market, and the industry was bearish on the market outlook. Traders frequently sold off their sources of supply. This made R134a pricey manufacturers worse and the inventory superimposed. Longzhong predicts that the price of refrigerant R134a is not easy for manufacturers, and the price decline has been set, and the subsequent downward adjustment may be larger.