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Refrigerants will meet the peak demand season, and upstream materials firstly rise

Views:33     Author:Site Editor     Publish Time: 2021-08-30      Origin:Site

Refrigerants will meet the peak demand season, and upstream materials firstly rise

Recently, the price of refrigerants in fluorine chemical products has risen fiercely. Affected by the growth of downstream demand, superimposed raw material rises and supply constraints, domestic R22, R134a, R125, R410a and other refrigerant prices have collectively risen.


In the terminal applications of refrigerants, air conditioners accounted for 78%, refrigerators accounted for 16%, and automobiles accounted for 6%. According to national statistics, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of my country's air conditioner and refrigerator output reached 17.3% and 11.3% respectively in the first seven months of this year, both maintaining double-digit growth, increasing the demand for refrigerants. According to the production scheduling arrangements of the largest downstream air conditioner manufacturers in previous years, generally around July is the off-season for scheduling. The off-season for downstream production demand has passed at the current time. It is expected that domestic refrigerants will usher in a marginal upward demand season in the second half of the year.


The recent rapid increase in refrigerant prices is mainly due to the increase in the price of the upstream raw material perchloroethylene. Perchloroethylene is mainly used to produce refrigerant R125, which accounts for about 80% of its demand. At present, the price of tetrachloroethylene in some areas of my country has increased by nearly 100% within a month.


Due to the influence of refrigerants on the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect, according to the Montreal Protocol and its supplementary amendments, the first-generation refrigerants have been phased out globally; the second-generation refrigerants have been basically eliminated in developed countries, and my country has implemented a quota system and gradually reduced production; The third-generation refrigerant is in the stage of setting a baseline value in my country and most developing countries, and the quota will be frozen in 2024. With regard to second-generation refrigerants, due to quota restrictions on products such as R22, domestic quota consumption has exceeded 70% this year, and subsequent supply is limited, supporting product prices.


At present, the capacity expansion of the third-generation refrigerants has come to an end, and the prices of R32, R134a, and R125 have all entered the bottom range. Since 2020-2022 is in the baseline stage of my country's third-generation refrigerants, manufacturers have the motivation to increase short-term production, resulting in this year's third-generation refrigerants R125, R134a and other products at a historically low level of profitability, and even some third-generation refrigerant products such as R32 are in a state of loss. With the recent boost in downstream demand, the prices of major products have risen rapidly. Wang Zhe said that the industry's long-term turning point is expected to loom.


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