Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2023-02-24 Origin: Site
After three years of "quota battle", the refrigerant industry is finally about to usher in "spring".
According to Baichuan Yingfu monitoring data, from 13,300 yuan per ton at the beginning of this year to more than 14,300 yuan per ton on February 22, the mainstream third-generation refrigerant R32 has risen by more than 10% since 2023. In addition, the price of third-generation refrigerants of many other models has also increased to varying degrees.
Recently, a number of executives of fluorine chemical listed companies told Shanghai Securities News that in 2023, the refrigerant industry is expected to usher in a turnaround, and with the economic recovery and the continuous expansion of downstream application scenarios, it is expected that the refrigerant market demand will continue to improve in the next few years.
Capital Securities said in the latest research report that after the end of the third-generation refrigerant base period, it is expected that the industry is
expected to usher in price spread repair and bottom rebound in 2023, while the third-generation refrigerant quota is concentrated in the industry leader.
Coupled with the continuous reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the high cost and limited application of fourth-generation refrigerants,
the competitive landscape of the third-generation refrigerant industry will undergo fundamental changes, or usher in a long-term upward boom cycle.
From 2020 to 2022, it is the base period for China's third-generation refrigerants in accordance with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Engagement. Since the production and sales of these three years is the baseline of the future refrigerant quota, various manufacturers have expanded their production capacity and seized market share by building new production lines or transforming production lines. This has led to an oversupply of the third-generation refrigerant market, and the profitability of related enterprises has been greatly affected.
According to authoritative data, by the end of 2022, the production capacity of China's third-generation refrigerants R32, R125 and R134a reached 507,000 tons, 285,000 tons and 300,000 tons, respectively, an increase of 86%, 39% and 5% over 2018.
While manufacturers are working hard to expand production, the performance of the downstream demand side of refrigerants is not "powerful". A number of industry insiders told reporters that in the past three years, due to poor demand in the downstream home appliance field, oversupply has greatly reduced the profitability of enterprises in the industry, and the industry is at the bottom of the boom.
Since the beginning of this year, with the end of the third-generation refrigerant base period, refrigerant companies are rapidly restoring the balance of market supply and demand by shrinking production capacity.
The person in charge of a listed company told reporters that the current national quota for the third generation of refrigerants has not yet been announced, but refrigerant companies do not need to produce at high loads, but according to market supply and demand to set production in quantity. Reduced supply will help refrigerant prices stabilize and recover.
The reporter learned in the interview that the demand for refrigerants is expected to pick up, which is also an important factor that the industry is generally optimistic about the rise of the refrigerant boom cycle.
According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, global cooling capacity is expected to grow from 1.17GW in 2016 to 3.7GW in 2050, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4%. In the downstream consumption structure of refrigerants, air conditioners account for 78%, and the market space and penetration rate of air conditioners still have a lot of room for improvement, and the future will be the main engine to drive refrigerant demand. In addition, the demand for refrigeration in heat pump applications, cold chain construction, modern agriculture and other fields is also growing.
Recently, some fluorine chemical listed companies such as FRIOFLOR Refrigerant have expressed confidence in the recovery of the refrigerant industry when receiving institutional investor surveys.
