The Bright Future of 3G Refrigerant Gas

The rising trend of third-generation refrigerants is expected to significantly surpass that of second-generation refrigerants. 

The reasons are: 

1) The quota lock-in period for second-generation refrigerants is from 2009 to 2010. At that time, it coincided with the domestic home appliances going to the countryside policy, which made the second-generation refrigerant quota base relatively high.

The third-generation refrigerant quota lock-in period is 2020 to 2022 years. Affected by the global epidemic and macroeconomics, the quota base is relatively low. 

2) When the quota production system was implemented for second-generation refrigerants, the third-generation refrigerant technology had matured

and overseas patents had expired. The third-generation refrigerant successfully replaced the reduced part of the second-generation refrigerant. The 

earliest production patent for fourth-generation refrigerants is expected to expire in 2027. The equipment used to superimpose fourth-generation 

refrigerants is completely different from that of third-generation refrigerants. The replacement cycle of equipment is generally 8-10 years, so it is 

expected that the fourth-generation will replace the third-generation. The speed will be slower than the replacement speed of the second generation 

by the third generation. 

3) Based on the current mainstream third-generation refrigerant price of 30,000 yuan/ton, its proportion in downstream household air-conditioning 

costs is less than 1%, so the downstream tolerance for price increases of third-generation refrigerants is high. The current price of fourth-generation 

refrigerants (more than 200,000 yuan/ton) is much higher than that of third-generation refrigerants. Even if the cost of fourth-generation refrigerants is 

calculated at 60,000-70,000 yuan/ton, it is far higher than the current selling price of third-generation refrigerants. After the quota system was 

implemented in the production of second-generation refrigerants in 2013, the price increased by 50% in one and a half years. 

The rising trend of third-generation refrigerants in this round is expected to significantly surpass that of second-generation refrigerants.