Views:17 Author:Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-09-13 Origin:Site
After more than a year of "losing money and earning money", the price of domestic refrigerants has risen sharply recently. What kind of market is this, and can the industry enter the upward channel?
The price of refrigerant has risen as a whole recently, especially R125
In the past two weeks, various refrigerants have maintained a rapid rise. The domestic price of R125 has risen from 33,000 yuan/ton to more than 50,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5%; the price of R142b has risen from 100,000 yuan/ton to Above 140,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.4%; and R22, R134a and other refrigerant prices also increased by more than 30%. This time, the overall price of the refrigerant jet took off, and the engine was R125, and its price increased by nearly 80% in the month, setting a new high in the past three years.
The weekly average price chart of refrigerant R125 from January to August 2021 (yuan/ton)
Starting from the beginning of 2021, the R125 market will get rid of the loss-making situation, and the overall stability will be improved. Due to the slight easing of the raw material supply tension, the follow-up price of R125 started to fall steadily from 38,000 yuan/ton. However, it bottomed out at 27,800 yuan/ton at the end of July and rebounded to 50,000 yuan/ton in mid-August. R125 in the last two weeks The increase was more than half.
The price of R125 soared, what is the reason behind it?
The shortage of raw materials and the US anti-dumping ruling are important drivers
The price of R125 is affected by both raw materials and supply and demand. In a weak market environment, the price of R125 is greatly affected by the raw materials, and the raw material tetrachloroethylene imports have a relatively high proportion of order sourcing, so its supply volatility is also large. Looking at the price curve of R125 and PCE as its raw material, the trends of the two are highly convergent. Recently, the raw material PCE has been affected by the dual effects of poor cargo arrival at the port and low-load start-ups caused by domestic factory overhauls. The volume has shrunk and the price has risen, causing the cost of R125 to rise sharply.
Comparison of the weekly average price trends of PCE and R125 from 2020 to now (yuan/ton)
From the perspective of supply and demand, on the supply side, most of the R125 domestic factories in the early stage were overhauled. In addition, due to the low production enthusiasm of the price inversion, the product inventory is low; in addition, due to the shortage of raw materials, the factory load is not high, resulting in insufficient supply in the R125 market. More serious. On the demand side, affected by factors such as increased exports, it has risen recently. Therefore, the R125 market is clearly in short supply and the gap is large.
However, the reason for the price increase of R125 is much more than that. Continuing to explore the reasons, the impact of the US anti-dumping ruling on R125 imported from China cannot be ignored.
The United States’ anti-dumping ruling process against imports of R125 from China this year is as follows: On January 12, 2021, Honeywell International of the United States applied to the United States International Trade Commission and the United States Department of Commerce to initiate anti-dumping and anti-dumping actions against imports of R125 originating in China. Countervailing investigation; on February 2, the US Department of Commerce announced the start of investigation; on August 11, it announced a preliminary ruling that the R125 dumping rate of Chinese manufacturers/exporters was 280.37% to 280.48%, and it will be on December 30 Make a final decision.
Based on the price trend and policy timing of R125, in the past two years, except for the large increase in R125 in November 2020 because of the shortage of raw material PCE, the other large increases are basically closely related to the US sanctions on Chinese-made R125. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that in order to avoid higher prices after the anti-dumping policy is formally implemented, refrigerant companies choose to stock up in large quantities before sanctions, which is also one of the main thrusts for the price increase of R125.
From 2020 to the present, US anti-dumping rulings and R125 weekly average price trend nodes indicate (yuan/ton)
The rising trend of refrigerant prices will not change in the short term
In view of the fact that raw materials are bullish and the supply and demand relationship is difficult to reverse in the short term, Industry Online believes that the upward trend of refrigerants will not change in the short term. The first is that the prices of raw materials such as anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) and calcium carbide will continue to rise in the near future. At the same time, with the arrival of the domestic stocking period and the continued high demand for foreign trade, coupled with the sharp increase in the price of R125, the industry as a whole is optimistic about the market. Rising, the overall price of refrigerants has shown an obvious upward trend.
Under the influence of many factors, the domestic refrigerant industry may usher in a small peak of development. China's HFCs refrigerant volume is huge, and its production, consumption and export volumes rank first in the world. Under the combined effects of poor supply of raw materials, general rise in refrigerant prices, and the advancement of the "Kigali Amendment" process, the industry inside and outside the industry has developed a market outlook. Generally optimistic.