The "seller's Era" for Refrigerant Market Continues

As the third-quarter earnings season wraps up, the refrigerant industry has delivered a report card of "lower volume but stable prices, with diverging profits." Supported by rigid HFCs quota constraints and another upward adjustment of fourth-quarter long-term contract prices, mainstream refrigerant prices continue to run at high levels, and the net profits of industry leaders generally maintained growth in the first three quarters. However, dragged down by the scaling back of the home appliance "national subsidy," air conditioner production schedules once fell sharply in the third quarter, and refrigerant sales came under short-term pressure, with the market showing a clear pattern of product divergence.

I. Prices: High-level fluctuation, fourth-quarter long-term contracts rise another 500 yuan/ton

According to the latest daily commentary from Fluorine Affairs Online and quotations in the East China market, current mainstream refrigerant prices are generally stable: R32 is quoted at 64,500–65,500 yuan/ton (Zibo Feiyuan quotes 65,500 yuan/ton), R134a at 64,000–65,000 yuan/ton with spot supply relatively tight, R125 at 55,000–60,000 yuan/ton, and R410A at 59,500–60,000 yuan/ton; R404A and R507 are quoted at 54,000–55,000 yuan/ton and 52,500–54,000 yuan/ton, respectively. The only clearly weakening product is R22, with spot quotations in the range of 18,000–23,000 yuan/ton, as traders actively destock and low-price selling disrupts the market; demand is concentrated only in maintenance and after-sales, mostly scattered small orders.

The firmness of prices is underpinned by the long-term contract pricing mechanism. A Guosen Securities research report pointed out that the fourth-quarter air conditioner long-term contract price rose by 500 yuan/ton month-on-month, extending the third-quarter upward trend of 2,900 yuan/ton; Baiinfo data show that in the first three quarters of 2026, the average prices of R32, R125, R134a, and R22 were 64,515 yuan/ton, 55,000 yuan/ton, 64,292 yuan/ton, and 22,723 yuan/ton, respectively, all in historically high ranges.

There are signs of marginal improvement on the demand side: October domestic air conditioner production schedules were 5.10 million units, turning positive with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and November schedules are forecast to rise 17.5%, driving a recovery in R32 demand, with companies firm in supporting prices and low-priced supply scarce. However, the industry as a whole is still in a cycle of terminal destocking overlapping with the traditional off-season, and downstream players are maintaining only just-in-time purchasing with little willingness to chase price increases. Under the "two-way game between supply support from tightening quotas and weak off-season demand," the market generally expects refrigerants to continue a pattern of high-level fluctuation and product divergence.

II. Policy: Total quota unchanged, structure optimized; EU F-gas tightening forces substitution

According to the reporter of Refrigeration Express, quota policy remains the strongest "supporting" factor for the market. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment approved a total HFCs production quota of 1.853 billion tCO2e for 2026, unchanged from 2025. In the second adjustment of quotas for 19 enterprises publicly announced in October, the R32 production quota was reduced by 8,108 tons and R125 by 9,574 tons, for a net total reduction of 1,141 tons — the latest quota conversion shows that enterprises have not increased R32 quotas, and leading companies remain firm in their stance of controlling volume to support prices, with the industry landscape continuing to optimize. In addition, starting January 1, 2027, China will prohibit the production of R22 multi-split (heat pump) units, accelerating the phase-out of HCFCs.

Internationally, the impact of the EU F-gas regulation is becoming apparent: starting January 1, 2027, split-type air-source heat pumps below 12 kW will be banned from using refrigerants with GWP>150, and the related ban on packaged air-conditioning heat pumps below 12 kW will take effect in 2030; the EU HFC quota will be nearly halved starting in 2027, a reduction of nearly 50%. Industry export tracking data show that from January to April 2026, China's R32 exports fell 50% year on year, and the substitution process for low-GWP refrigerants (R290, CO₂, R454 series) has clearly accelerated. Currently, spot prices of mainstream refrigerants such as R32 in European and American markets carry a premium of about twice the domestic price, and combined with the postponement of HFC reductions by the UK and the US, structural export opportunities and compliance pressure coexist in overseas markets.