Tighter Quotas And Technological Upgrades Will Usher in A New Landscape for Refrigerant Market

From Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, the refrigerant market will continue its pattern of "rigid supply and stable demand." On the supply side, over 90% of the 2025 HFCs quota has already been consumed. In Q4, most companies enter a quota control period, and the operating rate may further drop below 60%, making it difficult to alleviate the tight supply of R32 and R134a. The total HFCs quota for 2026 will remain unchanged at 720,000 tons, with no increase in supply. On the demand side, although Q4 is the off-season for air conditioning production, overseas Christmas orders and domestic demand for heat pump heating equipment will provide support. The total refrigerant demand for the whole of 2025 is expected to reach 712,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In Q1 2026, influenced by Spring Festival stockpiling, demand is expected to increase by 4.8% year-on-year.

Against this backdrop, the prices of third-generation refrigerants will remain high, with R32 prices expected to exceed 65,000 yuan/ton and R134a prices rising to 58,000 yuan/ton. The industry's gross profit margin will remain above 50%, and leading companies will maintain high growth rates in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2026.

From 2026 to 2030, as the implementation of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol enters its more challenging phase, HFC quotas will be reduced by 10% starting in 2029, reaching 648,000 tons in 2030, a 10% decrease compared to 2025, further intensifying supply contraction pressure. On the demand side, the downstream home appliance and automotive industries are accelerating their green transformation. By 2030, R32 models will account for over 95% of household air conditioners in my country, and the penetration rate of HFOs in new energy vehicles will reach 60%, driving product structure upgrades towards low GWP varieties.

During this period, third-generation refrigerants are expected to continue to dominate the market, but price volatility will increase, and core varieties such as R32 and R134a may experience temporary supply-demand gaps. HFOs capacity utilization will gradually increase to 65%, with production reaching 120,000 tons in 2030, becoming a new engine for industry growth. The application of natural refrigerant R290 in the heat pump field will further expand, with domestic production expected to exceed 40,000 tons and exports remaining above 75%.