What happens before and after the quota for 3G fluorine refrigerants?

What happens before and after the execution of 3G refrigerant production according to quota?

(1) Before the baseline period, enterprises carried out capacity expansion in order to strive for future quotas, resulting in serious overcapacity and dispersion of the industry competition pattern;

(2) In the baseline period (2020-2022), in order to compete for quotas, enterprises will have fierce market competition under serious overcapacity, and the industry competition pattern is mainly concentrated in production and sales;

(3) This year, because there is no need to compete for quotas, competition has returned to normal, but due to serious overcapacity and sharp declines in raw material prices, market competition is still fierce, and product prices are running at a low level;

(4) From next year, enterprises will produce according to quotas, and several new changes are expected:

The pattern of supply and demand changes

Enterprises will produce under the quota allocated by the government, the supply capacity is limited by the quota, and the serious overcapacity contradiction highlighted in recent years will be effectively released.

The competition pattern changes

After the quota competition in the baseline year, the production and sales in the baseline year tend to be concentrated, and with the landing of the quota, the industry competition pattern is concentrated, and it will not change in the future (except due to quota integration);

The market pattern changes

Developed countries walk towards the elimination period due to import quota reduction, China is expected to be in a certain period of maturity, so developing countries (the second group) and other countries with low air conditioning penetration rate still have greater potential growth space;

Different refrigerant gases have different application fields,and there are differences in demand, resulting in differences in supply and demand and price fluctuations.